Sprint has committed $15B to Apple in connection with securing rights to market the iPhone to Sprint’s subscribers (let’s not talk about the newest Apple product, the iHeatingPad). That’s a lot of cash, and I’ll bet that Apple’s contract leave virtually no room . . . → Read More: Might Apple buy Sprint?]]> Okay, it sounds wild, but let’s look at this for a bit…

Sprint has committed $15B to Apple in connection with securing rights to market the iPhone to Sprint’s subscribers (let’s not talk about the newest Apple product, the iHeatingPad). That’s a lot of cash, and I’ll bet that Apple’s contract leave virtually no room for Sprint to get out from under the weight of an 800 pound Apple.

At the same time, the $9B Sprint was expecting from LightSquared seems to drifted away. This raises very serious questions about the future of Sprint’s touted Network Vision upgrade. As a result, Sprint’s plans to shutter some 30,000 cell sites, relying on the Network Vision project to make it possible…must have dropped to ‘maybe’ status, too.

Clearwire. That word has turned into a blackhole of cash for Sprint, and Google just helped further devalue Sprint’s, ah, majority investment by dumping the Google-held shares at a 90% write off. WiMax is not Sprint’s path forward–LTE is. Clearwire may be too late to Sprint’s party.

Sprint’s Board of Directors last month vetoed Dan Hesse’s plan to buy MetroPCS (for a 30% premium, no less). That puts Dan Hesse’s future outlook at Sprint at a 30% deficit (others say that number is even worse). Will there be new blood on the head of the pin, much less new confusions over the direction the pin is pointing? Hey, how about T-Mobile buying MetroPCS?

This month, Sprint seems to have tried…and failed…to get a network sharing agreement with T-Mobile, according to the Wall Street Journal. I guess that shots a hole in my idea about a SprinT-Mobile merger.

Let’s not forget the grandest of Sprint’s Grand Experiments: Nextel. Oh, you want to forget about that? Likely Sprint does, too.

With research firm Sanford Bernstein dropping its rating on Sprint, citing that Sprint might visit BK land, the Bad News Band keeps marching on. For a thoughtful look at this particular issue, see the SeekingAlpha story of March 20th by clicking here.

Now let’s consider Apple.

Apple has attained the status of a ‘mythical creature’ that can seemingly devour all that blocks it path.

Apple has been fanatical about controlling, to the n-th degree, every element of its users experiences with all of the Apple devices. It controls the look and feel of the user experience, and via the App Store all of the applications on iPhones that have not been subject to a jailbreak, as well as iPads of various operating temperatures.

It must peeve Apple that it decided to confine its iPhone and iPad devices originally on an exclusive basis to AT&T to run on that carrier’s less-than-robust and less-than-adequate-capacity network, and one that actually gave up spectrum in the failed T-Mobile love affair.

Now, at least, Verizon subscribers have a better chance at being able to enjoy close to 3G speeds with their iSomethings.

Oh, yes, there’s that cash reserve thing for Apple. It’s sitting on more cash than the U.S. Treasury, and since last Summer it has been the most valuable company you’ll find in the U.S., and maybe anywhere in the entire galaxy.

If Apple thinks about it, it can have its cake and eat it, too: Buy Sprint, fund and complete Network Vision, deploy 4G at real 4G speed, and dump all of the Sprint phones save for Apple iSomethings. Using the software defined radios of Network Vision, Apple can actually build a wireless network that is optimized for data (but still including the voice app that defines LTE). Siri may be the first step to Skynet, albeit with a programmed sense of humor. (How much wood can a woodchuck chuck? See here.)

For Apple, a Sprint purchase would yield it monthly cash flow that can be put back into expanding and optimizing the “Apple Wireless” Network Vision. And given Sprint’s majority ownership in Clearwire (and the 106ish MHz Clearwire controls in the U.S.), Apple would have a real playground to expand data capacity and speeds.

Maybe Apple might make apply the principles of the iTunes Store to Sprint to shift the marketing of Sprint services to the faceless online monolith. Buy a phone and activate service online. Forget about pins dropping.

It just seems right for Apple to continue its quest to control everything its users see and do with the iSomethings now and in the future by controlling its own data delivery network. At the same time, it can keep feeding iSomethings to Verizon, AT&T, and any other carrier that can’t afford to be left in Apple’s iDust.

With the passing of Steve Jobs, the direct minutia-level control he seemed to exert on Apple (at least according to Isaacson) has also passed. This may free up the current management of Apple to take the leap (no, not Leap Wireless) to controlling even more of the user experience, but from a new distance, all without asking “WWSD?”

Of course, Apple might buy T-Mobile instead–or as well–and do more or less the same thing, but that’s a thought best left for a future post.

So T-Mobile, recently left at the alter by AT&T, is now looking for $9B to build out a LTE network that can compete with AT&T.

T-Mobile has a great start towards its goal when you consider that AT&T gave it $4B as a parting . . . → Read More: Buddy, can you spare $9B?]]>

Please feed the T-Mobile Kitty. (Photo illustration by Jonathan Kramer)

So T-Mobile, recently left at the alter by AT&T, is now looking for $9B to build out a LTE network that can compete with AT&T.

T-Mobile has a great start towards its goal when you consider that AT&T gave it $4B as a parting gift.  If you have some loose change or small bills, please drop it in Carly’s cup.  Heck, all she needs is another $5B.  Easy!

$9B’s a lot of investment money simply to split the market even more than it is, today.  It’s also interesting that T-Mobile seems determined to join the rest of the world by going to 4G via LTE rather than via its current industry-isolating path of HPSA+ (also known as “it’s 4G if we say it’s 4G”).

I continue to believe that T-Mobile will either join forces with Sprint (can you say “SprinT-Mobile”?) or T-Mobile will acquire one or several smaller regional carriers.  How about “Hello…Hello…Hello” for example.  A dark horse: Maybe Deutsche Telekom, T-Mobile’s German parent will sell off its entire worldwide wireless network to some small country…or maybe to Microsoft.

Only time…and money…will tell.

Look for T-Mobile to either buy some second tier carriers, to perhaps do a deal with Sprint (see that posting here).

1. The Department of Justice  is successful in its suit to block the proposed AT&T&T merger or AT&T gives up, pays T-Mobile the $6B cancellation fee; and then

(….hear in your mind’s ear the ethereal sounds of harps and chimes….)

2. King Deutsche Telekom–disappointed at the . . . → Read More: SprinT-Mobile?]]> I have to wonder whether the following might happen:

1. The Department of Justice  is successful in its suit to block the proposed AT&T&T merger or AT&T gives up, pays T-Mobile the $6B cancellation fee; and then

(….hear in your mind’s ear the ethereal sounds of harps and chimes….)

2. King Deutsche Telekom–disappointed at the loss of suitor King AT&T–continues to peddle Princess T-Mobile as a bride for some other lessor noble suitor; and then

3. Prince Sprint steps up says to Princess T-Mobile, ‘Oh, please marry me, Highness!’;  but at about the same  time then

4. Prince Sprint suddenly remembers that he’s already married to an ugly wife, named Countess Nextel; and then

5. Prince Sprint calls the Royal divorce lawyers to rid itself of Countess Nextel (really, to profitably free himself of the Countess’s land sites and frequencies) to uses the divorce settlement to help finance the ‘reverse dowry’ it offered to King Deutsche Telekom); and then

6. Prince Sprint and Countess Nextel go their separate ways (likely some lesser suitor will step up to protect Nextel’s honor and propose marriage); and then

7. Prince Sprint and Princess T-Mobile wed uniting their lesser kingdoms into one land, and then

8. Many of Princess T-Mobile’s hand maidens (they’re called employees in T-Mobiledom) find themselves put out of the castle, while the lucky few other retainers are invited to pledge their allegiance the court contractors of Prince Sprint, but

9. The serfs (oddly called ‘subscribers’ for some strange reason) in the newly combined Kingdom of SpriT-Mobile see no difference in their lives.  They continue to pay their monthly tribute to the Prince and Princess to be allowed access to the expanded lands of Kingdom and the privilege of communicating with other serfs of SprinT-Mobile, and serfs in the other aligned Kingdoms.

The new Royal couple might even have their own Royal Coat of Arms:

…and be known by the Hollywood name of “Sprin-Tee”!

One has to wonder when such a story might come true!  For the meantime, this is just a fanciful parody.  Yup…just a parody.

Case No. 1:11-cv-01560, assigned to Hon. Ellen S. Huvelle

25 pages.

CLICK ON THE LINK BELOW TO DOWNLOAD THE COMPLIANT IN PDF FORMAT (about 1 MB)

ATT_Tmobile_Complaint

According to Maisey’s story, the interesting AT&T document showed that if the Commission approves the proposed T-Mobile merger, AT&T will expand its . . . → Read More: It’s the Money, Stupid!]]> In a copyrighted story that appeared in the 8/11/11 edition of Wireless Week, Maisey Ramsay wrote about an AT&T/T-Mobile merger document that appeared on the FCC’s web site, and then disappeared few hours later.

According to Maisey’s story, the interesting AT&T document showed that if the Commission approves the proposed T-Mobile merger, AT&T will expand its high speed data network to rural areas beyond that which they’ve already agreed to serve.

This is an interesting revelation given that the wireless carriers have claimed that its local governments that have stymied their growth through right-of-way regulations that they assert block deployment.

Yeah, right.

Of course we know that those carrier-claims are hollow, and that smaller communities go begging for modern celular/PCS/LTE/AWS services and high speed wireless internet

According to the article:

“AT&T senior management concluded that, unless AT&T could find a way to expand its LTE footprint on a significantly more cost-effective basis, an LTE deployment to 80 percent of the U.S. population was the most that could be justified,” AT&T counsel Richard Rosen stated in the letter.

The company said its merger with T-Mobile would spread the cost of the LTE expansion over a larger revenue base, allowing it to “better absorb the increased capital investment and lower returns associated with deploying LTE to over 97 percent of the U.S. population.”

Thanks, Richard…  You’ve confirmed what we’ve known, and what the Commission needs to know.

It’s all about the money…the carriers’ money…

…and not about claims that it’s the local governments are blocking deployment.  It’s the money, stupid!

-Jonathan

The Commission, which is now populated by a majority of members appointed by Gov. Jerry Brown, will evaluate whether to propose conditions on the merger.  The Commission will be taking public testimony, and moving its review along a fast track which . . . → Read More: CPUC to Review AT&T&T Proposed Merger]]> The California Public Utilities Commission will launch an investigation into the pending AT&T/T-Mobile merger.

The Commission, which is now populated by a majority of members appointed by Gov. Jerry Brown, will evaluate whether to propose conditions on the merger.  The Commission will be taking public testimony, and moving its review along a fast track which may result in a Commission action in October of this year.

Here are two links with additional information on the pending CPUC review:

The Los Angeles Times article: http://latimes.com/business/la-fi-puc-att-20110609,0,2964962.story

The CPUC Press Release: http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/word_pdf/NEWS_RELEASE/136944.pdf

My suspicion is that T-Mobile will be . . . → Read More: AT&T&T Likely to Have to Divest Portions of Networks]]> Reuters is reporting that AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson believes that his company will have to divest portions of its existing wireless network to secure federal permissions to acquire T-Mobile.  Stephenson’s comments were made in New York at a Council on Foreign Relations event held on March 30, 2011

My suspicion is that T-Mobile will be similarly required to divest portions of its existing wireless network in the same or adjoining areas as those assets that AT&T will shed to make the deal work for the Feds.

The shed assets will help strengthen the remaining, small competitors, who will then become known as current take-over targets for other major players.

Stephenson also said at the same event that he expected consumer prices for wireless services to continue drop as a result of the proposed merger.  His comments came just hours before April Fools Day.

What is more of a surprise is that T-Mobile lasted so long before giving up the ship. T-Mobile has always played a game of the . . . → Read More: AT&T&T?]]> It’s no surprise that T-Mobile will soon cease to exist in the U.S.  What is a surprise is that AT&T is claiming the prize, rather than the widely-rumored suitor, Sprint/Nextel.

What is more of a surprise is that T-Mobile lasted so long before giving up the ship. T-Mobile has always played a game of the catch-up wanna-be to the legacy national carriers in the U.S. 

What does make sense is that AT&T, rather than Sprint/Nextel looks like the winner: Sprint/Nextel certainly needs access to more sites and licenses, but AT&T can make better use of T-Mobile’s assets, specifically the AWS-Band frequency assignments around 2100 MHz.

AT&T went the other direction when it focused, rightly, on gaining new 700 MHz frequencies for its LTE data (and later, voice) deployments.  By taking T-Mobile, AT&T gains more spectrum in the 1900 and 2100 MHz bands to add to its existing 700 and 860 MHz assignments.  Sweet.  AT&T’s recent purchase of the national 700 MHz band license from the ill-conceived and now all-but-defunct MediaFLO/FLO-TV operation of Qualcomm makes even more sense given the pending marriage with T-Mobile.  Sweeter.

Sprint could not have benefited to the same degree as AT&T given that it does not have 860 MHz band assignments (yes, I’m discounting the Nextel assignments for this discussion since those have turned out to be such a poor deal for Sprint).

IF THIS DEAL GOES THROUGH, and there’s certainly a big IF in there, I suspect that the even-newer AT&T will be forced by the DOJ/FTC/FCC to sell off chunks of the existing networks of both firms.  This has been the trend in prior mergers/buy-outs, and it’s unlikely that this deal will not see sales of major network assets in the name of competition.

What’s next?

For site landlords, in about a year it will be time to take out their AT&T and T-Mobile lease contracts and look at those transfer terms.  It’ll be a really interesting time for site lessors with both AT&T and T-Mobile currently collocating at the same site.

For other wireless carriers, this deal will force some shotgun marriages. 

I predict that Sprint/Nextel will now look to MetroPCS.  Verizon will look at MetroPCS, too.  This may also be the start of the end-game for Cricket Wireless.

Finally, many of the roaming contracts between the biggies and the smaller regional PCS and cellular carriers contain buy-out options (the biggie can for the sale of the small fish).  We’ll see Verizon continue its aggressive campaign of Roam-to-Buy as a first step of blunting the AT&T/T-Mobile deal.

For now I think we should start calling the new network: “AT&T&T”!